In the context of increasing urban risks, particularly from climate change-induced flooding, this paper presents an extended Reality (XR)-based framework to improve user risk training within urban built environments. The framework is designed to improve risk awareness and preparedness among various stakeholders, including citizens, local authorities, and emergency responders. Using immersive XR technologies, the training experience simulates real-world emergency scenarios, contributing to active participation and a deeper understanding of potential hazards and especially for floods. The framework highlights the importance of stakeholder participation in its development, ensuring that training modules are customized to address the specific needs of different user groups. The iterative approach of the framework supports ongoing refinement through user feedback and performance data, thus improving the overall effectiveness of risk training initiatives. This work outlines the methodological phases involved in the framework's implementation, including i) user flow mapping, ii) scenario selection, and iii) performance evaluation, with a focus on the pilot application in Senigallia, Italy. The findings underscore the potential of XR technologies to transform urban risk training, promoting a culture of preparedness and resilience against urban hazards.

Street scene datasets, collected from Street View or dashboard cameras, offer a promising means of detecting urban objects and incidents like street flooding. However, a major challenge in using these datasets is their lack of reliable labels: there are myriad types of incidents, many types occur rarely, and ground-truth measures of where incidents occur are lacking. Here, we propose BayFlood, a two-stage approach which circumvents this difficulty. First, we perform zero-shot classification of where incidents occur using a pretrained vision-language model (VLM). Second, we fit a spatial Bayesian model on the VLM classifications. The zero-shot approach avoids the need to annotate large training sets, and the Bayesian model provides frequent desiderata in urban settings - principled measures of uncertainty, smoothing across locations, and incorporation of external data like stormwater accumulation zones. We comprehensively validate this two-stage approach, showing that VLMs provide strong zero-shot signal for floods across multiple cities and time periods, the Bayesian model improves out-of-sample prediction relative to baseline methods, and our inferred flood risk correlates with known external predictors of risk. Having validated our approach, we show it can be used to improve urban flood detection: our analysis reveals 113,738 people who are at high risk of flooding overlooked by current methods, identifies demographic biases in existing methods, and suggests locations for new flood sensors. More broadly, our results showcase how Bayesian modeling of zero-shot LM annotations represents a promising paradigm because it avoids the need to collect large labeled datasets and leverages the power of foundation models while providing the expressiveness and uncertainty quantification of Bayesian models.

High-resolution flood probability maps are essential for addressing the limitations of existing flood risk assessment approaches but are often limited by the availability of historical event data. Also, producing simulated data needed for creating probabilistic flood maps using physics-based models involves significant computation and time effort inhibiting the feasibility. To address this gap, this study introduces Flood-Precip GAN (Flood-Precipitation Generative Adversarial Network), a novel methodology that leverages generative machine learning to simulate large-scale synthetic inundation data to produce probabilistic flood maps. With a focus on Harris County, Texas, Flood-Precip GAN begins with training a cell-wise depth estimator using a limited number of physics-based model-generated precipitation-flood events. This model, which emphasizes precipitation-based features, outperforms universal models. Subsequently, a Generative Adversarial Network (GAN) with constraints is employed to conditionally generate synthetic precipitation records. Strategic thresholds are established to filter these records, ensuring close alignment with true precipitation patterns. For each cell, synthetic events are smoothed using a K-nearest neighbors algorithm and processed through the depth estimator to derive synthetic depth distributions. By iterating this procedure and after generating 10,000 synthetic precipitation-flood events, we construct flood probability maps in various formats, considering different inundation depths. Validation through similarity and correlation metrics confirms the fidelity of the synthetic depth distributions relative to true data. Flood-Precip GAN provides a scalable solution for generating synthetic flood depth data needed to create high-resolution flood probability maps, significantly enhancing flood preparedness and mitigation efforts.

Inspired by ideas from health risk assessment, this paper presents a new perspective for flood risk assessment. The proposed perspective focuses on three pillars for examining flood risk: (1) inherent susceptibility, (2) mitigation strategies, and (3) external stressors. These pillars collectively encompass the physical and environmental characteristics of urban areas, the effectiveness of human-intervention measures, and the influence of uncontrollable external factors, offering a fresh point of view for decoding flood risks. For each pillar, we delineate its individual contributions to flood risk and illustrate their interactive and overall impact. The three-pillars model embodies a shift in focus from the quest to precisely model and quantify flood risk to evaluating pathways to high flood risk. The shift in perspective is intended to alleviate the quest for quantifying and predicting flood risk at fine resolutions as a panacea for enhanced flood risk management. The decomposition of flood risk pathways into the three intertwined pillars (i.e., inherent factors, mitigation factors, and external factors) enables evaluation of changes in factors within each pillar enhance and exacerbate flood risk, creating a platform from which to inform plans, decisions, and actions. Building on this foundation, we argue that a flood risk pathway analysis approach, which examines the individual and collective impacts of inherent factors, mitigation strategies, and external stressors, is essential for a nuanced evaluation of flood risk. Accordingly, the proposed perspective could complement the existing frameworks and approaches for flood risk assessment.

Real-time flood forecasting plays a crucial role in enabling timely and effective emergency responses. However, a significant challenge lies in bridging the gap between complex numerical flood models and practical decision-making. Decision-makers often rely on experts to interpret these models for optimizing flood mitigation strategies. And the public requires complex techniques to inquiry and understand socio-cultural and institutional factors, often hinders the public's understanding of flood risks. To overcome these challenges, our study introduces an innovative solution: a customized AI Assistant powered by the GPT-4 Large Language Model. This AI Assistant is designed to facilitate effective communication between decision-makers, the general public, and flood forecasters, without the requirement of specialized knowledge. The new framework utilizes GPT-4's advanced natural language understanding and function calling capabilities to provide immediate flood alerts and respond to various flood-related inquiries. Our developed prototype integrates real-time flood warnings with flood maps and social vulnerability data. It also effectively translates complex flood zone information into actionable risk management advice. To assess its performance, we evaluated the prototype using six criteria within three main categories: relevance, error resilience, and understanding of context. Our research marks a significant step towards a more accessible and user-friendly approach in flood risk management. This study highlights the potential of advanced AI tools like GPT-4 in democratizing information and enhancing public engagement in critical social and environmental issues.

ABSTRACT As governments race to implement new climate adaptation policies that prepare for more frequent flooding, they must seek policies that are effective for all communities and uphold climate justice. This requires evaluating policies not only on their overall effectiveness but also on whether their benefits are felt across all communities. We illustrate the importance of considering such disparities for flood adaptation using the FEMA National Flood Insurance Program Community Rating System and its dataset of 2.5 million flood insurance claims. We use CausalFlow, a causal inference method based on deep generative models, to estimate the treatment effect of flood adaptation interventions based on a community's income, diversity, population, flood risk, educational attainment, and precipitation. We find that the program saves communities $5,000-15,000 per household. However, these savings are not evenly spread across communities. For example, for low-income communities savings sharply decline as flood-risk increases in contrast to their high-income counterparts with all else equal. Even among low-income communities, there is a gap in savings between predominantly white and non-white communities: savings of predominantly white communities can be higher by more than $6000 per household. As communities worldwide ramp up efforts to reduce losses inflicted by floods, simply prescribing a series flood adaptation measures is not enough. Programs must provide communities with the necessary technical and economic support to compensate for historical patterns of disenfranchisement, racism, and inequality. Future flood adaptation efforts should go beyond reducing losses overall and aim to close existing gaps to equitably support communities in the race for climate adaptation. INTRODUCTION Flooding constitutes nearly a third of all losses from natural disasters worldwide (Reuters 2022). By the end of the century, rising sea levels and coastal flooding are estimated to cost the global economy $14.2 trillion (a fifth of the global GDP) in damaged assets (Kirezci et al. 2020).

Urban flood risk emerges from complex and nonlinear interactions among multiple features related to flood hazard, flood exposure, and social and physical vulnerabilities, along with the complex spatial flood dependence relationships. Existing approaches for characterizing urban flood risk, however, are primarily based on flood plain maps, focusing on a limited number of features, primarily hazard and exposure features, without consideration of feature interactions or the dependence relationships among spatial areas. To address this gap, this study presents an integrated urban flood-risk rating model based on a novel unsupervised graph deep learning model (called FloodRisk-Net). FloodRisk-Net is capable of capturing spatial dependence among areas and complex and nonlinear interactions among flood hazards and urban features for specifying emergent flood risk. Using data from multiple metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) in the United States, the model characterizes their flood risk into six distinct city-specific levels. The model is interpretable and enables feature analysis of areas within each flood-risk level, allowing for the identification of the three archetypes shaping the highest flood risk within each MSA. Flood risk is found to be spatially distributed in a hierarchical structure within each MSA, where the core city disproportionately bears the highest flood risk. Multiple cities are found to have high overall flood-risk levels and low spatial inequality, indicating limited options for balancing urban development and flood-risk reduction. Relevant flood-risk reduction strategies are discussed considering ways that the highest flood risk and uneven spatial distribution of flood risk are formed.

The application of models to assess the risk of the physical impacts of weather and climate and their subsequent consequences for society and business is of the utmost importance in our changing climate. The operation of such models is historically bespoke and constrained to specific compute infrastructure, driving datasets and predefined configurations. These constraints introduce challenges with scaling model runs and putting the models in the hands of interested users. Here we present a cloud-based modular framework for the deployment and operation of geospatial models, initially applied to climate impacts. The Climate Impact Modelling Frameworks (CIMF) enables the deployment of modular workflows in a dynamic and flexible manner. Users can specify workflow components in a streamlined manner, these components can then be easily organised into different configurations to assess risk in different ways and at different scales. This also enables different models (physical simulation or machine learning models) and workflows to be connected to produce combined risk assessment. Flood modelling is used as an end-to-end example to demonstrate the operation of CIMF.

Imagine you are considering buying a long-term place with a view of mountains or ocean. For due diligence, your partner asks about flood risk in the area. FEMA maps show the place is outside the 100-year flood zones (1% annual chance). However, you have heard that climate change is making extreme events more extreme and some places have seen multiple 100-year floods within a few years. Next, you browse information about climate change and its impact.

Research models use data from Toronto's Don River and Calgary's Bow River TORONTO, November 11, 2019 – Using complex models based on artificial intelligence (AI) and data from the Don River in Toronto and Bow River in Calgary, researchers at the Lassonde School of Engineering can now predict the water levels in rivers days in advance of floods. "We've created methods to predict real-time flood risk," says Usman T. Khan, professor in the Department of Civil Engineering at York's Lassonde School of Engineering. "These results outline an approach that can be used to create models with higher accuracy and lower data requirements, which translates to improved flood early warning systems. Early warning systems are considered the most effective way to mitigate flood induced hazards." The study, led by Khan, was published today in the Journal of Hydrology.